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Over the past few days, the NPP has made major news headlines for two main controversial proposals the National Executive Committee (NEC) has agreed upon, as part of activities leading up to electing its
parliamentary candidates for the 2016 general elections. That is, the decision to allow only women aspirants to contest sitting members of parliament who are women in the primaries and also only Gas to contest the coastal constituencies of the Greater-Accra Region.
[contextly_sidebar id=”8INOjCwLsC0HLTuUe8Rm3LVVa63CLUNm”]People have expressed diverse opinions as to the constitutionality or otherwise of those decisions, some also questioning what the NPP stands to gain as a party if it follows through with these two decisions.
Join me as we embark on this journey together to find out what this means to the fortunes of the NPP in the 2016 elections. As for the constitutionality or otherwise of it, let’s leave that to the lawyers. In addition, we all know that the EC does not collect candidates’ biostatistics based on ethnicity so it’s practically impossible to decipher who is a Ga and who is not. Therefore analysis based on ethnic group and how it benefits each party is beyond the scope of this piece.
OVERVIEW OF WOMEN REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT (1996-2012)
In 1996 when the NPP started contesting officially in parliamentary polls, there were a total of 762 candidates who stood to be elected as MPs for what was going to be only the second parliament of the fourth republic of Ghana. Out of that number, 59 (7.74%) were women. After the elections, 18 out of the 200 MPs to form the second parliament of the fourth republic elected were women. This figure represents just 9% women representation in Parliament.
In the December 2000 elections, there were a total of 1,076 parliamentary candidates contesting for the 200 seats, among them were 101 women (9.39%) slugging it out with the 976 men. At the end of the
contest, again, 18 women emerged as winners, thereby preserving their 9% representation in parliament for the start of the Third Parliament of the Fourth Republic.
Five by-elections were held during the 3rd Parliament and a woman emerged winner in one of them in the person of Mrs. Agnes Sonful who won to snatch the Gomoa West seat for the NPP from the NDC, following the resignation of the NDC’s Abraham Kofi Asare in early 2003. This increased the number of women to 19.
By the time the EC closed nominations for the 2004 elections, there were 104 women out of a total of 953 parliamentary candidates standing for elections. On January 7, 2005, 25 women (10.87%) out of the 230
MPs were sworn into office to kick off the 4th Parliament of the 4th Republic. With the addition of 30 more constituencies, women also got seven (7) more seats in parliament to take a little increase in their
representation from 9% in 2000 to 10.87%.
However in 2008, the number of women standing for election and the number elected both took a dip from 104 and 24 in 2004 to 99 and 20 respectively. In percentage terms, almost 9.4% of 2008 parliamentary candidates were women whiles just 8.7% of the 5th Parliament of the 4th Republic women – a 2.17% drop from 10.87% in 2004. That share was reduced further when the late Hon. Doris Asibi Asiedu of the NPP passed away just a little over six months after being sworn in for her second term as MP for Chereponi in the Northern Region. A man (Samuel Abdulai Jabanyite of the NDC) won the resultant by-election held in September 2009.
Finally in 2012 with 45 more constituencies created, 35 more women contested the 2012 elections, bringing their number from 99 in 2008 to 134 out of a total of 1,322 parliamentary candidates contesting for the 275 seats in December 2012. Twenty-eight (28) of these women emerged from the hotly contested elections as winners. That gives them a 10.18% representation in the 5th Parliament and takes them almost to the 2004 level.
CONTRIBUTION OF THE NPP TO WOMEN REPRESENTATION IN PARLIAMENT
In 1996, out of the 59 women who stood for elections, 12 of them representing 20.34% were from the NPP whiles four (4) out of the 18 women (22.22%) elected into the 2nd Parliament were NPP.
Even though the proportion of female NPP candidates in the 2000 elections fell from 20.34% in 1996 to 17.82% in (18 out of 101 female candidates) in 2000, nine (9) out of the 18 elected female MPs were
from the NPP (i.e. 50%).
Women’s performance reached peak level in 2004 when out of 104 female candidates; almost 27% were from the NPP. After the polls, 25 females were elected and 20 of them, representing an overwhelming 80% were from the NPP. Unfortunately, the gains made by women over the period from 1996 to
2004 could not be sustained as total female nominations dropped from 104 in 2004 to 99 in 2008. That also reflected in a fall in female NPP nominations from 28 in 2004 to 22 in 2008. Total number of female MPs elected also fell from 25 in 2004 to 20 in 2008. The NPP still however contributed the majority of the female MPs (70% of them) even though their share went down by 10%.
In the last election (2012 election), there were 32 female NPP candidates (23.88%) out of a total of 134 female candidates competing for various seats across the country – a sign of improvement of about
2 percent over 2008 but still less than 3 percent short of 2004 figures. In winning terms, 28 female candidates won their seats, 57% of whom were from the NPP. Even though the number of female NPP MPs increased from 14 in 2008 to 16 in 2012, their dominance in parliament ( 57%) is consistently waning compared to 2004 (80%) and 2008 (70%).
PERFORMANCE OF FEMALE NPP CANDIDATES IN AN ELECTION AGAINST THEIR MALE
COUNTERPARTS
What are the chances of the NPP winning a seat with a female candidate compared to a male candidate? Let’s look at the numbers. In the 1996 election, the NPP presented 179 parliamentary candidates and 6.7% of them were women. After the election, the NPP, by the EC’s records won 61 seats and four (4) of them (6.56%) were women. The win percentage of a female NPP candidate was 33.33% compared to 34.13% by their male counterparts. The difference is less than one percent.
In the year 2000, out of 199 candidates presented by the NPP, 18 of them (9.05%) were female and out of the 100 NPP MPs elected, nine of them (9%) were females. These figures represent a little over 2% jump from their 1996 levels. In terms of success, female NPP candidates had almost equal percentage of success (50%) just as their male counterparts.
The NPP presented 226 candidates in the 2004 elections of which 28 were women. They won 128 seats to form the majority and 15.63% were women, which is almost 7% higher than their share in the 3rd Parliament. Over 71% of female NPP parliamentary candidates were successful whiles their male counterparts had just about 55% success rate.
Both figures fell in 2008 but the NPP was still better off nominating a female candidate (63.64% success rate) than a male candidate. Out of 207 male candidates in 2008 only 45.41% of them won their seats. The NPP made a total of 229 nominations (excluding Ellembelle for Freddy Blay) out of which 22 (representing 9.61%) were females. The NPP won 108 seats in Parliament in 2008 and fourteen (14) of them, representing about 13% were women. This was a shortfall of about some 3 percent from 2004.
And going further to 2012, 11.64% of NPP’s 275 nominations were females, which is a bit higher than 2008 level but still lower than the 2004 standards. 123 NPP candidates won their seats out of which 16 were women (13 percent) – a slight increase over the 2008 levels but not enough to match 2004 performance of 15.63%. In this election, 50% of NPP female nominations won whiles majority of NPP male nominations (56% of them) failed to win.
A REVIEW OF THE CHANCES OF EACH OF THE SIXTEEN FEMALE NPP MPs IN THE
2016 ELECTIONS
There are currently sixteen (16) NPP seats being occupied by women in parliament – 1 from Western Region, 1 from Central Region, 6 from Greater-Accra, 3 from Eastern Region, 4 from Ashanti and 1 from Brong-Ahafo Region. Let’s take a closer look at the performance of each of these women in the previously held national elections.
* GIFTY EUGENIA KUSI, 59 Years – Tarkwa-Nsuaem , Western Region
Hon Eugenia Kusi has been in Parliament since she won the Tarkwa-Nsuaem seat in the 2000 elections. She had gone on to win it again in 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections, battling it out with three different NDC candidates over the period. However, Hon. Kusi’s popularity among her constituents seems to be dwindling since that first win. For instance, in 2000, when she was first elected, she pulled over 60% of valid votes. That share reduced to a little over 59% in 2004, then 57.64% in 2008 before a huge dip to 51.86% in 2012. Compare that to her NDC opponents over the same period.
Since she beat Francis Kojo Yankey who pulled 20.27% in 2000, the NDC increased their share to 26.75% in 2004 with Solomon Kwabena Amoah in 2004 and later Christina Kobinah who had 36.9% in 2008 and 45.44% in 2012 reducing a 17,648 vote’s gap Hon. Kusi created in 2004 to 4,681 votes in 2012 in the process.
VERDICT: If the NPP should go through with its directive on affirmative action and no strong female candidate comes to challenge Hon Gifty Eugenia Kusi to the slot, then the NPP is likely to lose this seat to the NDC. Because if the NDC with Christina Kobinah as its
candidate could reduce Hon Kusi’s winning gap of almost 21% in 2008 to just less than 5% (over 17% reduction) in 2012, then anything can happen in 2016.
* MAVIS HAWA KOOMSON, 49 Years – Awutu Senya East, Central Region Awutu Senya East was created out of the former Awutu Senya Constituency (now, Awutu Senya West) before the 2012 elections. Forty-nine year old Mavis Hawa Koomson is its first member of parliament.
That being said, it is imperative to know that the former constituency where Awutu Senya East was carved from has been predominantly NDC in Parliament. It was only in 2004 that an NPP candidate Oppey Abbey won there by a little over 50%, beating his closest contender Moses Arhinful Acquah of the NDC by almost 19,000 votes.
But he lost the seat four years later back to the NDC by some 2,000 votes. Hon. Koomson herself pulled 52.5% of votes in the 2012 elections beating the NDC’s Adams Nuhu by over 4,100 votes.
VERDICT: Considering the constituency as coming from a swing but predominantly NDC constituency since 1992, the NPP would need a candidate who is not only popular within the party but also within the
constituency in order to stand up to the NDC in 2016. If that person happens not to be the current MP, then the affirmative action may backfire and be counterproductive to the party’s fortunes in 2016.
* ROSEMOND COMFORT ABRAH, 65 Years – Weija-Gbawe, Greater-Accra Region
Until 2004 when Amasaman and Domeabra-Obom constituencies were carved out of the Ga South (now Weija-Gbawe), then Ghana’s most populous constituency was an NDC dominated constituency. But since the separation, the NPP has made it their own with Hon.
Shirly Ayorkor Botchwey winning in 2004 and 2008 before the constituency was split again into Weija-Gbawe and Anyaa-Sowutuom in 2012 when Hon Botchwey moved to the Anyaa-Sowutuom and Hon Comfort Abrah came in to preserve the NPP’s winning trend in the constitituency. Hon. Abrah, just like Hon. Botchwey in 2008, won by almost 54% of the votes in 2012 maintaining a gap of over 5,000 votes on the runner-up.
VERDICT: Should Rosemond Comfort Abrah decide to run again and with support from the proposed affirmative action, she will, in no doubt, win the seat again for the NPP even though I expect the winning margin to be slimmer than on previous occasions.
* SHIRLEY AYORKOR BOTCHWEY, 52 Years – Anyaa-Sowutuom, Greater-Accra Region
There is no contest here as far as Hon. Ayorkor Botchwey is concerned. She won the majority votes (58.65% in 2004 and 53.79% in 2008) in her former constituency, Weija-Gbawe, before cruising to a whopping 62.47% in her new constituency, beating her closest contender Sedina Christine Tamekloe-Atitionu of the NDC by over 21,600 votes.
VERDICT: This is one of the safest seats for the NPP and so she will still win it again should she come out victorious in the primaries.
* SARAH ADWOA SARFO, 33 Years – Dome-Kwabenya, Greater-Accra Region
Just like Ayorkor Botchwey, there is no competition here. Despite her predecessor Prof. Mike Aaron Oquaye’s status as a stalwart in the NPP, he was becoming unpopular within his constituency (65.52% in 2004 to 57.51% in 2008), until Hon. Adwoa Sarfo took the NPP almost back to where it started from, amassing close to 64% of the votes with a majority of over 28,000 votes gap.
VERDICT: Considering her tender age, she is surely one for the future. However, she has a strong male contender in the person of Mike Oquaye Jnr. waiting in the wings. The affirmative action policy will be beneficial to keeping her in parliament for years to come.
* ELIZABETH KWATSOE TAWIAH SACKEY, 57 Years – Okaikwei North, Greater-Accra Region
Hon. Elizabeth Sackey came to parliament in 2004 with a simple majority of 46.11% beating the NDC’s Richard Simon Quaye by over 9,200 votes. Even though the 2008 election was closely contested, she came through again with 49.65% of the valid votes. The NDC also improved from 36.58% in 2004 to 46.47% in 2008, closing the gap from 9,205 votes in 2004 to just 2,830 in 2008.
Many would have thought that, Hon. Sackey was going to lose the seat in 2012. But after Okaikwei Central was carved away in 2012, she still managed to maintain her 49.6% win but this time with a smaller margin of about 1,900 votes even though in relative terms, she has improved on the margin slightly from 3.18% in 2008 to 3.48% in 2012.
VERDICT: Elizabeth Sackey seems to have a certain loyal voter population who always helps her come on top, even though not with any massive absolute majority. But all win be win. If she should emerge from the primaries again, whatever means – either through affirmative action policy or open contest – I will stick my neck out and say, she will win it again!
* URSULA G. OWUSU, 51 Years – Ablekuma West, Greater-Accra Region
Ursula Owusu is the NPP’s like-for-like replacement for the late Theresa Ameley Tagoe in Ablekuma. The parent constituency of Ablekuma West, Ablekuma South, was dominated by the NPP since 1996 until 2008 when the NDC’s Fritz Baffour beat the NPP’s Francis Kojo Smith to the seat. In 2012, Ablekuma West was born out of Ablekuma South and it was a straight fight between two young women growing in popularity within their respective parties – Ursula Owusu and Victoria Lakshimi Hammah of the NDC.
At the end of the contest, Ursula came top with over 58% of the votes beating Victoria Hammah by over 10,800 votes.
VERDICT: Irrespective of whom the NDC puts up in 2016, this is one of the relatively safer seats for the NPP. Even though her share of votes may reduce in 2016, should Ursula Owusu be protected by the affirmative action proposal to go through the primaries, she will still win the Ablekuma West seat again, but with a smaller majority/margin.
* IRENE NAA TORSHIE, 45 Years – Tema West, Greater-Accra Region
Tema West was one of the closely contested constituencies in the 2012 elections. Irene Naa Torshie on her first election in 2008 beat the NDC’s George Komla Medie by over 8,600 votes but narrowly escaped defeat in 2012 when the NDC’s Samuel Ofosu-Ampofo (who switched allegiance from Fanteakwa North of the Eastern Region from 1996 to 2008) gave her a run for her money. She saw her over 8,000 winning margin in 2008 slashed to just 973 votes in 2012. However, the constituency has always been for the NPP.
VERDICT: Tema West has always voted NPP (Abraham Ossei Aidoo, 1996-2004, and Naa Torshie, 2008-2012). With the exception of 2012 (49.53%), the NPP had always won it with absolute majority (59% in 1996, 61% in 2000, 53% in 2004, 55% in 2008). In the absence of any surprises, I expect them to win it again in 2016 and so protecting Naa Torshie through the affirmative action to run on the ticket again will not be out of place.
* GIFTY KLENAM, 45 Years – Lower West Akim, Eastern Region
Hon. Gifty Klenam was elected in 2008 with 22,239 votes representing 60.3%. Even though that figure increased to 26,663 in 2012, her share of votes diminished to 57.8% while the NDC closed the gap on her from 24.85% to 18.29% over the same period.
VERDICT: This seat has been largely an NPP seat since 2000 election. I expect them to keep it for the foreseeable future. Affirmative action to protect Hon. Klenam will not be injurious to the NPP’s fortunes at
all.
* ESTHER OBENG DAPAAH, 70 Years – Abirem, Eastern Region
Hon. Esther Obeng Dapaah was first elected into parliament in 2004 with 53% of the votes. She improved it further to 60.65% in 2008 before dropping to 54% in 2012. However, her winning margin keeps reducing from 27.68% in 2004 to just 8.82% in 2012 and in vote terms, from 6,065 votes in 2004, 5,889 in 2008, before settling at about 2,800 margin in 2012.
VERDICT: Looking at her percentage of win, one would think she is not doing badly but comparatively, the NDC is covering the grounds on her. Also, looking at the 2012 margin of just 8.82% and the fact that the NDC is able to cover-up from 26.81% gap in 2008 to that level, one cannot tell for how long before they overtake her. With Abirem being a predominantly NPP, I expect her to win it again in 2016, all be it with a smaller margin compared to 2012.
* ABENA OSEI-ASARE, 36 Years – Atiwa East – Eastern Region
Atiwa East was carved out of Atiwa West (previously Atiwa) and Hon Osei-Asare had 70.41% of the votes with over 42% winning margin. The NPP had always won the parent Atiwa seat with over 70% of the votes since 2000.
VERDICT: This is one of the constituencies where the affirmative action will work best.
* GRACE ADDO, 55 Years – Manso Nkwanta, Ashanti Region Hon. Grace Addo entered parliament in 2008, when the constituency was known as Amansie West, with 73.10% of the votes. In 2012, the former Amansie West was split into Manso Nkwanta and Manso Adubia and Hon Addo increased her share of the votes to over 77% in the 2012 election with almost 59% winning margin.
VERDICT: Whatever means through which she should win the primaries, Hon. Grace Addo will win the seat again in 2016.
* PATRICIA APPIAGYEI, 59 Years – Asokwa, Ashanti Region
One of the safest seats for the NPP in parliament is the Asokwa constituency. And looking at the figures, Hon. Appiagyei is even more popular in the constituency than her predecessor Maxwell Kofi Jumah whose share of votes reduced from 77% in 2004 (when he was first elected MP) to 62.35% in 2008. But Hon. Appiagyei went on to set a new record by cruising to over 80% of the votes with a gap of almost 62% between her and her closest contender.
VERDICT: We cannot tell if Kofi Jumah is still interested in contesting her in the primaries. But by whatever means, if Patricia Appiagyei should run on the ticket of the NPP again, the NPP won’t
lose a sleep.
* ELIZABETH AGYEMANG, 66 Years – Oforikrom, Ashanti Region
Hon. Elizabeth Agyemang has been in parliament since 2004. She entered with 66.19% of the votes, about 8% better than her predecessor Edward B. Bonni also of the NPP. However, her performance reduced to 63% in 2008 but later improved to 65.11% in 2012. She increased her votes from 40,704 in 2008 to over 58,800 in 2012.
VERDICT: 2016 will not be different if she is kept around just like all the other NPP seats occupied by women in the Ashanti Region.
* AMA POMAA ANDOH, 40 Years – Juaben, Ashanti Region
Juaben was created out of Ejisu-Juaben (now Ejisu) in 2012. It is one of the strongest NPP constituencies with Hon Andoh winning over 75% of the votes, beating her runner-up by over 51% margin.
VERDICT: The affirmative action proposal will serve its intended purpose here.
* FREDA PREMPEH, 49 Years – Tano North, Brong-Ahafo Region
Tano North has, since 1996, been predominantly NPP. Hon. Freda Prempeh came to parliament just in the 2012 election. Even though her performance could not match that of her two predecessors, she still had an absolute majority of 53.9% of the votes with an almost 11% winning margin.
VERDICT: The NPP will win this seat again in 2016. And so protecting Hon. Prempeh to continue will not be a bad idea for the affirmative action and to the NPP’s fortunes.
CONCLUSIONS:
From all the analyses above, we can clearly draw the following conclusions:
* In modern day Ghana politics, if there is going to be any increase in women representation in parliament, it is more likely to come from the camp of the New Patriotic Party (the NPP) than any other political party. A female candidate on the ticket of the NPP has a greater chance of winning than on any other party’s ticket (50% in 2000, 80% in 2004, 70% in 2008 and 57% in 2012).
* The NPP is more likely to win a Parliamentary seat with a woman as its candidate than with a male candidate. Their success rates are 33.33% in 1996, 50% in 2000, 71% in 2004, 63% in 2008 and 50% in 2012 compared to 34.13% for men in 1996, 50% in 2000, 55% in 2004, 45.41% in 2008 and 44.17% in 2012.
* Fourteen (14) out of the sixteen (16) female MPs currently on the ticket of the NPP can/will retain their seats if they should stand again on the ticket of the NPP in the 2016 elections. The other two
(2) are likely to lose their seats if they should go again. These are Gifty Eugenia Kusi of Tarkwa-Nsuaem in the Western Region and Mavis Hawa Koomson of Awutu Senya East in the Central Region.
If the NPP strongly believes in women empowerment, then its policy on affirmative action will not only strengthen that position, but will also enhance the party’s chances of winning more seats in parliament with female candidates in the 2016 elections.
Author: Justice George Torgboh