If you were thinking that the rise of long-range electric vehicles, like the forthcoming Chevy Boltor Tesla Model 3, might lead to the demise of gas-burning cars, think again. According to Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 94% of the global car fleet will still run on fossil fuels in the year 2040.
In its annual World Oil Outlook report, OPEC estimates that EVs will represent a mere 1% of the global car market in 2040. Hybrids, however, which the organization considers mostly gas-powered due to their onboard gas-burning engines, will command 14% of the market by the same date.
“Without a technology breakthrough, battery electric vehicles are not expected to gain significant market share in the foreseeable future,” the group predicts. It also estimates hydrogen- and natural gas-powered cars will also fail to make a significant impact on oil consumption because of the high cost and lack of fueling infrastructure.
OPEC does concede that hybrid sales will increase and cars will become more efficient. That said, oil demand will continue to grow over the next 25 years due to burgeoning mobility markets, namely China and India.
This prediction should be taken with many, many grains of salt, so to speak, as OPEC has a stake in increased oil consumption. And of course it will be quick to downplay the role battery electric vehicles will play in the future.
That said, even with obvious bias aside, it seems awfully shortsighted. That’s because EVs could play a far bigger role in modern transportation than you might expect.
Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), would like to mandate that all new cars sold in California by 2030 be zero emissions vehicles, according to a Bloombergreport. Although that’s just a dream right now, it could become reality.
If it were law, global carmakers would have to adjust in a big way. If they have to rethink their product portfolio for California, they’ll adjust accordingly for the U.S. market as a whole — the second largest car market on the planet. That means that if California were EV only, most of the world could become that way, too.
And, as for the battery technology breakthroughs, clearly OPEC hasn’t been paying much attention to lithium-air batteries, or to Elon Musk’s Gigafactories either.
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Source: Mashable