Worldwide smartphone shipments will reach a total of nearly 1.3 billion units in 2014, representing an increase of 26.3 percent over 2013, according to a new forecast from IDC.
Looking ahead, IDC expects 1.4 billion smartphones to be shipped worldwide in 2015 for a 12.2 percent year-over-year growth rate.
Slower annual growth continues throughout the forecast with unit shipments approaching 1.9 billion in 2018, resulting in a 9.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2014-2018 forecast period.
[contextly_sidebar id=”Q8M33zDyZQF6dD1sgZklO6GHKWaPRepc”]Smartphone revenues reflect a starker picture, as they will be hard hit by the increasingly cutthroat nature of pricing, resulting in a 4.2 percent CAGR over the same forecast period.
On a worldwide basis, smartphones are expected to have an average selling price (ASP) of USD 297 worldwide in 2014, dropping to USD 241 by 2018.
Emerging markets like India will see much lower smartphone prices, as ASPs hit USD 135 in 2014 and fall to USD 102 by 2018. In contrast, ASPs in mature markets are not expected to change significantly and modestly higher shipment volumes will not drive up overall revenues as each generation of flagship phones shows less and less differentiation from its predecessors.
From an operating system perspective, Android devices will continue to drive shipment volumes while iOS devices drive revenues.
By 2018, Android will control 80 percent of global smartphones shipped and 61 percent of revenues, while iOS will control only 13 percent of volumes and 34 percent of revenues.