The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has taken a swipe at the New Patriotic Party vice Presidential candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia for attempting to “undermine” its integrity.
[contextly_sidebar id=”qjs5alunwAilAtfInbsU0q8vNWaZEWAJ”]According to the GSS Dr. Bawumia’s interpretations of figures from the Statistical Service is misleading.
The NPP vice presidential candidate while speaking at a lecture on Ghana’s IMF bailout programme, questioned, particularly the food price inflation and GDP being churned out by the GSS and pointed out that since 2009, the normal relationship between food and non-food inflation seemed to no longer exist.
Dr Bawumia further explained in the lecture that inflation rate must correspond with interest rates, cost of living as well as the exchange rate.
But Addressing the Press today Government Statistician, Dr. Philomena Nyarko said Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s interpretation of figures from the Statistical Service was misleading asking any individual or institution interested in verifying the truth to contact the service.
Below are the specific responses to Dr Bawumia:
GDP
On the issue of GDP growth rates for 2009, Dr Bawumia queried why the overall 2009 non-oil GDP growth rate was 2.2 percent, whereas agriculture sector grew by 7.2 percent, industry by 4.5 percent and services by 5.6 percent.
GSS wishes to state that there was an error during the transmission of the data unto its website. The correct figure is 4.8 percent and not the 2.2 percent which has subsequently been identified and corrected. The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) raised a similar concern in January 2015 and they were provided with the above explanation and the correct figure. It may interest the public to note that the 2009 GDP growth rate of 4.8% was the figure provided to the IMF in January 2015.
Net Indirect Taxes
Dr Bawumia questioned why real growth for indirect taxes are equal to the real growth rate at basic prices for all the years since 2009. It must be stated that the method for computing net indirect taxes in constant prices has been revised to align with the recommended treatment outlined in the 2008 system on National Accounts (SNA 2008) and this is consistent with GSS’ revisions policy.
The recommendation in the 2008 is to use a related quantity indicator to derive a volume series for taxes. Ideally, indirect taxes should not contribute substantially to GDP growth. Total net indirect taxes are therefore extrapolated by growth rates obtained at basic prices which are acceptable approximations. However slight differences between the growth rates in GDP at basic prices and growth rates in net indirect taxes might be admissible.
Inflation
In more specific terms, we find it difficult to reconcile Dr Bawumia’s own figures on page 57 of his presentation where he indicated that GSS estimated a marginal decline in the rate of food prices, from 7.1% in January 2014 tp 6.8% in December 2014.
However, on page 61 of his lecture paper, he indicated that the food inflation computed by GSS declined from 5.7% in January 2014 to 2.8% by December 2014.
This disparity is difficult for us to understand especially so when the latter figures (5.7% and 2.8%) cannot be traced to GSS, even though the former are actual GSS food inflation figures.
In conclusion, we wish to state that the GSS is mindful of the need to produce and disseminate credible and verifiable data to enhance the formulation and implementation of relevant policies and this is exactly what we strive to do.
In the discharge of our duties, we are guided by our core values and ethics as well as the UN Fundamental Priniciples of Official Statistics and the African Charter of Statistics.
The GSS is prepared to offer further clarifications to any individual or group or persons on the work we do, especially on issues relating to inflation and GDP.
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By: Godwin Allotey Akweiteh/citifmonline.com/Ghana